Clarity and Collaboration in Q3 2022

Q3 2022, brought more clarity as to the direction our market will head as we finish out 2022 and head into 2023. Q3 brought an overall move back to a more traditional real estate market with less frenzied activity and a more measured approach from buyers and sellers. While this means a shift away from a dominant seller’s market, it also allows for opportunities for both buyers and sellers to transact in a more collaborative way. 

The trend we were monitoring in the second quarter of 2022 carried into Q3. There was an overall decrease in sales volume, however, it was not as significant as we saw in Q2. A similar trend was seen across the board, with a fewer number of new listings, and lower average listing and selling prices. There were increases in median selling prices and average days on market. Even with the overall trends providing more market clarity, one interesting data point was that the average final selling price was 97% of the last listed price, slightly below Q3 2021, which was 100%. While there was a slight decrease in this percentage it is still a sign of a strong market.

Interest rates, having moved from a low 3% to almost 7% since the start of Q2, have had a more significant impact on the overall market than almost any other factor outside of the economy as a whole. This continues to be a factor that all of us monitor. While these rates seem much higher than many buyers have ever experienced, they are still historically low. We are finding that buyers who are well qualified are still willing to move forward as the market is presenting them with opportunities they haven’t seen in 2 to 3 years.

Across the region, excluding Waterbury, there was a decrease in inventory. In Stowe, there was a 14% decline in new listings, and in Lamoille North, there was a 22% decrease in new listings compared to last year. Waterbury saw an increase in inventory, by 23%.

We are transitioning to a more balanced market, returning to less of a fevered environment, one where both buyers and sellers can work together to reach the common goal of a successful transaction. As we make this transition it is important to have the right real estate professional on your team to assist in navigating these collaborations to a successful outcome.

Stowe

Stowe saw a decrease in overall sales volume compared to Q3 2021, with a 21% decrease in Q3 2022. This decrease was also reflected in the number of new listings slipping by 14%, with a total of 30 new homes coming on the market. The median and average selling prices moved in different directions during Q3. The average sales price dipped by 34%, this was driven by higher interest rates, buyers facing less competition, and an overall transition away from a seller’s market. The median sales price rose by just over 10%, which can be attributed to the gains seen in overall property values since 2020. The average selling price for Q3 was $1.342M, down from $2.068M in 2021. The median selling price was $990K, up from $890K in 2021. 

The luxury market in Stowe remained strong in the third quarter of 2021, there were 10 sales above $1M, with the highest selling price of $3.25 million. Q3 2022 had 5 sales above $2M, which helped to drive the average and median sales prices higher than a year ago. The average sales price for the luxury segment of the market was $1.965M in Q3 of 2022, compared to $1.662M a year ago. The median sales price was $1.612M in 2022 compared to $1.298M a year ago. These increases reflect the overall strength of the luxury market as well as the renewed interest in the Stowe area from high-net-worth buyers.

Currently, there are 33 homes on the market in Stowe ranging from $425K to $17.5M. The majority of these homes are priced above $1M, 23, in total. There are 7 homes priced between $2M and $4M, 5 between $4M and $10M, and 3 homes priced between $14.9M and $17M.

The condo market saw a 28% decrease in both the number of sales and the number of new listings compared to Q3 of 2021. There was a dramatic decrease in average days on market by 53%, confirming buyers’ desires to have a place in Stowe without the responsibility of a single-family home. The average days on market in Q3 2022 was 25 compared to 60 a year ago.  The average sale prices declined slightly by 7%, to $714K. The median sales price rose by almost 2% to $562K compared to a year ago. Properties like Topnotch, Landmark Meadow, and Butternut Lane all saw continued strong sales at or above $1.5M, setting a new level of equity for these properties. 

Land saw a drop in parcels sold year over year with just 2 trading in Q3 2022, compared to 6 tradings the year prior. Since there were only two parcels sold in Q3, it’s too small of a sample size to rely upon in terms of the overall movement of the average and median pricing. What is evidenced is that the choices of higher quality lots with sizable acreage, views, and ease of building are becoming hard to find within the Stowe market. It’s likely this trend will continue as building in the area has reached a higher level than seen before 2020.

For the second quarter in a row, our office is proud to report that we represented the sale of the highest-priced commercial property sold in Q3 2022 with the sale of the Golden Eagle Resort. We represented the buyers in this transaction, which sold for $13M; a property that has over 80 hotel keys, developable land, and sits on 31 acres.

Lamoille County

In Lamoille County, an area comprising 9 towns, in addition to Stowe, there was a decrease in overall sales by 10%, which was reflected in the market as a whole. The average price decrease was similar to Stowe, decreasing by 30%, compared to Q3 2021. The median sales price grew by 11%, again showing the gains these markets have seen in overall value in the past two years.  There was a market wide reduction in homes available by 22% compared to a year ago, with a slight increase of days on market by 12%. While there was a decline in the numbers as a whole we found that the attractiveness of Lamoille County, offering Vermonters access to high-quality jobs, healthcare services, and lifestyle activities continues to drive home sales in this area.

Land sales mimicked the home sales in that there were declines in overall parcels sold, 23, compared to 40 a year ago.  The average price increased from $115K to $141K, this is mostly due to the fact that many lower-valued parcels traded out of the market last year. The median sales price barely increased, again showing that more highly valued properties are trading in Q3 2022. The average days on the market was 85 and the median was 21, compared to 145 and 48 in 2021. As land becomes harder to find in Stowe and for those who want more space and privacy, land north of Stowe remains a very attractive option.

Waterbury

Waterbury was the only local market to see gains in terms of the number of sales, with an increase of 5%. Although modest it still reflects the desirability of this location. The market continued to excel in terms of the sales price compared to listing price, which was up by almost 1.5%. The average and median sales prices increased by 15% and 19%, respectively. The average sales price went from $518K to $598K and the median sales price went from $440K to $525K. There was a large drop in average and median days on market, 45% and 33% respectively. There are 8 active listings available, ranging from $295K to $850K, this is an increase of 23% compared to a year ago.

One land parcel sold in Q3 2022 compared to 3 during the same period last year. There are currently only 3 parcels on the market priced between $175K and $450K.

Given Waterbury’s overall size and lack of inventory, we expect the sales there to continue to flow quickly through the market as they come on. Interest rates might have a slowing effect, but with so few options to choose from that may take past Q4 2022 and into 2023 to come to fruition.

In transitional markets, making sure you have a trusted advisor to help you determine the right pricing strategy is of the utmost importance. Our agents are equipped to provide their clients with up-to-the-minute market data, helping clients make informed decisions in an effort to achieve the best outcome. Having access to agents with market knowledge, and expertise, along with leading technologies gives you access to the support and advice that is critical for Sellers and Buyers when navigating a changing market. As always we’re here to help, don’t hesitate to contact us.

Opportunities and Stabilization in Q2 2022

As the market progresses through 2022, we are seeing a transition to a more normal and balanced market than what we have been experiencing in the past few years. The expansive growth seen in 2020 and 2021 has helped to set the stage for a new sense of value and opportunity in Stowe and the surrounding areas. There has been an increase in inventory, which historically happens at the end of Q2 and into Q3, thus allowing a return to a more stabilized market environment. This means there are excellent opportunities for both buyers and sellers to achieve their goals, a testament to the strength of our area.

There was a decrease in sales volume for single-family homes in Q2 compared to a year ago. At the same time, we saw the median sales price increase, while the average sales price decreased. This was mainly driven by fewer sales above $1 million in Q2 2022. As we move into Q3, historically one of our busiest quarters we expect these numbers to continue to refine themselves.

As we transition into a more balanced market we are returning to less of a fevered environment and one where both buyers and sellers work together to reach the common goal of a successful transaction. Our belief is that there remain opportunities for all parties in transitional markets, having the right real estate professional to help guide them through these changing markets is paramount.

Across the region, there was an increase in inventory, in Stowe and Lamoille North there was a 10% increase in new listings compared to last year. In Stowe, it was more pronounced in that there was a 28% jump in new listings. Waterbury saw a decrease in inventory, dropping by 28%.

Stowe saw a decrease in overall sales volume compared to 2021, with a decrease of 41% in Q2 2022. While there was a decrease in sales, there was an increase in inventory, providing buyers with more options. Inventory in Stowe was up by 28%. The median and average selling prices moved in different directions during Q2. The average sales price dipped by almost 7%, mostly due to fewer homes trading above $1 million. The median sales price rose by just over 5%, which can be attributed to most of the homes at or below $1 million trading above their asking price. The average selling price for Q2 was $983K, down from $1.057M in 2021. The median selling price was $830K, up from $790K in 2021.

The luxury market in Stowe for Q2 2022, while not the dominant driver of the market, still saw 6 single-family home sales above $1 million, with the highest being an off-market sale at $1.786 million. Compare this to Q2 2021 where there were 9 sales, with the highest selling price of $3.4M. Additionally, last year in Q2 there were two more above $2M, which helped to drive the average price higher. The average days on market for the luxury market in Q2 2022 was 62, compared to 22 days a year ago. The median days on market were actually lower with 7 days on market in Q2 2022 compared to 15 in 2021. Given the small sample size of this section of the market, a few sales can have a large impact. The overall luxury market should be more defined as we move through Q3 2022.

Currently, there are 26 single-family homes on the market in Stowe ranging from $435K to $16M. The majority of these homes are priced above $1M, 17, in total, with 9 priced above $2M. Historically, it is typical to see inventory increase at the end of Q2 and into Q3, which is what is happening this year, thus returning to a more normalized market.

The condo market saw an increase in both the number of sales, by 6.67% and new listings, by 35%, compared to last year. There was a dramatic decrease in average days on market by 65%, confirming buyers’ desires to have a place in Stowe with the ability to not carry the responsibility of a single-family home. The average number of days on market in Q2 2022 was 45 compared to 125 days a year ago.  The median days on market was 3 compared to 80 in Q2 2021. The average and median sales prices rose 36% and 27%, respectively. While there were some higher-priced sales located at Stowe Mt. Resort in 2021, 2022 has seen dramatic shifts upwards for established properties.  Properties like Topnotch, Landmark Meadow, Stonybrook, and Covered Bridge Condos all saw record sales prices.

Land saw little change in terms of parcels sold year over year with 7 trading in Q2 2022 and 9 parcels trading last year. The biggest changes came in average and median pricing. The average sales price dropped from $519K in 2021 to $437K in 2022, this is mainly due to two sales over $1M last year. The median price had a significant shift upwards this year, moving from $189K to $415K in 2022. In addition to the move upwards in median pricing, the average days on market dropped from 167 to 31 in 2022. Land remains scarce in Stowe, so those with an appetite for building will find less to choose from than a year ago.

Our office is proud to report that we represented the sale of the highest-priced commercial property in Q2 2022 with the sale of the Springer-Miller property.  We represented both buyers and sellers in this transaction, which sold for $5.35 million and is a property that has over 26,000 square feet of office space and sits on 9.5 acres.

In Lamoille County, an area comprising 9 towns, in addition to Stowe, there was a decrease in overall sales by 15%, which was reflective of the market as a whole. The average and median price increases were also more moderate compared to Q2 2021, they increased by 6.44% and 7.14%, respectively. The most impactful data from Q2 2022 is that the average and median days on market went down significantly, 50% and 61%, respectively. This shows the attractiveness of Lamoille County, offering Vermonters access to high-quality jobs, healthcare services, and lifestyle activities. With an overall increase in new listings for Q2 2022 of 16.5% this area remains a great option for buyers.

Land sales saw a more than 50% reduction in overall sales, but as with all other segments of the market, the average and median prices saw significant gains. The average price increased to $160K from $112K a year before. The median price increased to $101K from $75K in 2021. As with home sales, there was a shift downwards in terms of average and median days on the market. The average number of days on the market was 122 and the median was 54, compared to 230 and 158 in 2021. As land becomes harder to find in Stowe and for those who want more space and privacy, land north of Stowe remains an attractive option.

Waterbury saw declines across the board in terms of number of sales, new listings, and average and median sales prices.  Where the market excelled was the sales price compared to the listing price, which was up by 6%, showing there remains strong competition for properties within this market. The number of sales dropped by 30% compared to the year before and this is a direct result of limited inventory. The average and median sales prices were down 28% and 39% respectively. The average sales price went from $685K to $505K and the median sales price went from $625K to $401K. There was a slight drop in average and median days on market, 7% and 14% respectively. There are 11 active listings available, ranging from $285K to $1.6M.

Land in Waterbury did see a decrease in sales, with 3 parcels sold in Q2 of 2022, compared to 5 in 2021. Although there was a decrease, the average and median sales prices did jump, given all 3 properties sold above $290K. The average sales price went from $181K to $304K and the median moved from $190K to $298K. There are only two parcels available on the market.

Since Waterbury has such a small sample size in single-family and land sales, we will continue to monitor the market to seek further indicators of where 2022 is headed, given the overall lack of inventory available, even with decreases seen in Q2, we expect sales in Waterbury to remain strong.

In transitional markets, it’s paramount to have an expert advisor at your side as you make decisions; whether that is when to list or how to structure your offer to be the most competitive. This remains true for those considering selling their properties as well. Making sure you have a trusted advisor to help you determine the right pricing strategy is even more important in these markets. Having access to resources unique to this profession, knowledge, and expertise; agents are equipped to provide their clients with up-to-the-minute market data information, and new listing alerts from MLS, helping clients to make informed decisions in an effort to achieve the best outcome. All this along with leading technologies render support and advice that is critical for Sellers and Buyers to have as well.