CBCRE Q4 2022 Market Report

A Year of Transition in 2022

As 2022 came to a close it became clear that it was a year of transition from the booming markets in 2021 and early 2022 to a more normalized market in late 2022. Many factors came into play throughout 2022, mainly the Fed’s dramatic increases to historically low interest rates, shifts within the stock market, and leveling of buyer demand. Our market continues to benefit from low inventory, allowing for overall property value to remain stable. While 2022 brought about the end of frenzied purchasing, it did increase opportunities for buyers and sellers to find common ground.

Q4 2022 was very reflective of the year as a whole, with a decrease in the number of properties sold, but gains seen in average and median sales prices compared to a year ago. This trend shows the strength and stability of the value gains since 2020 and the continued attractiveness of our area. In Q4 2022 the average final selling price was 99% of the last listed price. In 2022 this percentage never went below 97%, which happened in Q3. Smart pricing has become the cornerstone of our market, those holding on to the heights of the market will continue to see days on the market increase. Whereas correct pricing from the start or strategic price improvements, after having tested the market, will result in faster and higher recorded sales. Sellers employing these methods will still get plenty of value out of the sale of their property.

While interest rates have stabilized from the highs seen in Q3 and Q4, they remain much higher than a year ago. The Stowe market is somewhat isolated from the rate hikes, at least within the luxury market north of $1.5 million, but below this threshold, the rates do have an impact on buyers’ purchasing power. There is a more significant impact on sales from rate hikes at lower price points in our broader market. This was evident in the slowdown in transactions towards the end of 2022. As buyers adjust to the new rate reality we expect them to reevaluate, refocus and commit to purchasing, as we have seen in past markets with similar mortgage rates.

The Stowe and Waterbury markets saw an increase in inventory in Q4 2022 compared to Q4 2021, by 12% in Stowe and 16% in Waterbury. Lamoille North had a decrease in inventory by 11% compared to a year ago. As our local markets cool we expect to see the number of available properties increase. This is typical of this time of year. Since 2020 there has been a shortage of inventory, partnered with massive buyer demand, this is expected to ebb as we progress into 2023. As rates go up and national markets slow, it will start to offer more housing options to those who have been waiting to make a transition from one location to another or those looking for a vacation property.

What is most paramount in a transitioning market, and one that appears to be slowing, is having the right real estate professional and firm to guide you. At Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate we offer unparalleled service from start to finish. For sellers that means full and complete professional listing packages and guidance through the selling process. For buyers, it means market expertise, high-quality representation, and topnotch negotiation skills. Our goal is your goal, the most successful outcome.

Stowe

Stowe saw a decrease in overall sales volume compared to Q4 2021, with a 29% decrease in Q4 2022. There was a slight increase in the number of new listings by 12%, with a total of 18 new homes coming on the market. The median and average selling prices moved upwards during Q4. The average sales price increased by 20%, this was driven by several higher-end properties trading above $2M in Q4. The median sales price rose by just over 12%, which can be attributed to the gains seen in overall property values, as well as the year-end luxury sales. The average selling price for Q4 was $1.390M, up from $1.138M in 2021. The median selling price was $1.004M, up from $890K in 2021. 

The Stowe luxury market remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2022, there were 9 sales above $1M, with the highest selling price of $3.273M. There were 5 sales above $2M, which helped to drive the average and median sales prices higher than a year ago. Our firm represented the three highest sales in Q4, all at or above $2.65M. The average sales price for the luxury segment of the market was $2.166M in Q4 of 2022, compared to $1.702M a year ago. The median sales price was $2.495M in 2022 compared to $1.410M a year ago. This segment of the market isn’t as impacted by the rising rates as many of these purchases are cash.

Currently, there are 24 homes on the market in Stowe ranging from $375K to $17.5M. The majority of these homes are priced above $1M, 18, in total. There are 7 homes priced between $2M and $6M, and 3 homes priced between $14.9M and $17M.

The condo market saw a 19% decrease in the number of sales and a 16% decrease in the number of new listings compared to Q4 of 2021. There was an increase in average days on market by 28%, which is tied to higher rates and inventory that was too aggressive in their initial pricing. The average days on market in Q4 2022 was 28 compared to 22 a year ago. The average sale prices declined by 16%, to $697K. The median sales price rose by 39% to $600K.

There are 14 condos on the market in Stowe ranging from $389K to $3.65M. There are 6 condos below $1M and 8 priced between $1M and $4M. The majority of condominium units for sale are located at Stowe Mountain Resort, 9 units total. Of these, 4 are luxury condos priced between $1.295M for a two bedroom in the Lodge to $3.650M for a ski-in/out Mt. Cabin.

Land saw a drop in parcels sold year over year with just 2 trading in Q4 2022, compared to 4 tradings the year prior. Both land sales from this year were represented by our firm. Q4 2021 saw several large parcels or high-density parcels trade, thus creating much higher average and median sales prices compared to this year. While land is usually the first segment of our market to cool when we have a transitioning market, it is also becoming hard to find parcels that offer views, location, and privacy. 

The commercial market in Stowe was more active in 2022 than in 2021, with 12 properties trading compared to 5 the previous year. Our office represented the largest number of commercial sales marketwide. We represented not only the highest sale, The Golden Eagle Resort, at $13M, but also two other generational properties, The Innsbruck Lodge and Springer-Miller office complex. Our firm specializes in securing good stewards for these properties so that they can continue to be a part of the fabric of the Stowe community. 

Lamoille County

In Lamoille County, an area comprising 9 towns, in addition to Stowe, there was a decrease in overall sales by 22%, which was reflected in the market as a whole. The average price increased by 7%, compared to Q4 2021. The median sales price grew by 15%, again showing the gains these markets have seen in overall value in the past two years. There was a market wide reduction in homes available by 22% compared to a year ago, with an increase of days on market by 25%. There was also a reduction in new listings by 11%, from 69 a year ago to 61 this year. These markets are more directly impacted by higher interest rates, forcing buyers to reevaluate their budgets. Sellers will need to really focus on the impact of these rates as they prepare to price their homes for the market.

Land sales mimicked the home sales in that there were declines in overall parcels sold, 77, compared to 128 a year ago. The average price increased from $166K to $121K, this is mostly due to the fact that some higher-valued parcels traded this year. The median sales price increased, from $79K to $95K, and the average price increased from $121K to $166K. The average days on the market was 147 and the median was 57, compared to 194 and 123 in 2021, showing decreases in both categories. 

Waterbury

Waterbury saw a decrease in terms of the number of sales, by 23% compared to a year ago. Q4 2022 saw the average and median sales prices decrease by 17% and 26%, respectively. Year over year, the average sales price went from $600K to $561K and the median sales price went from $517K to $435K. The average days on market increased by 28% in Q4 2022 compared to Q4 2021. There are 3 active listings available, ranging from $275K to $350K, this is typical for the time of year and we expect additional inventory to hit the market later in Q1 2023.

One land parcel sold in Q4 2022 compared to 4 during the same period last year. There are currently only 4 parcels on the market priced between $150K and $450K.

Waterbury continues to benefit from its location as being the center of the triangle between Stowe, Burlington, and Montpelier. While it is a market that is impacted by rising rates, we expect that it will continue to hold its value as buyers find it highly desirable.

In transitional markets, making sure you have a trusted advisor to help you determine the right pricing strategy is of the utmost importance. Our agents are equipped to provide their clients with up-to-the-minute market data, helping clients make informed decisions in an effort to achieve the best outcome. Having access to agents with market knowledge, and expertise, along with leading technologies gives you access to the support and advice that is critical for Sellers and Buyers when navigating a changing market. As always we’re here to help, don’t hesitate to contact us.